Inventory and availability discussion

[thedave1164]

My neighbor is a commercial plumber. Wasn't out at the jobsite the past couple days because he hasn't been able to get the PVC pipe he needs for the job. Supposedly he'll be able to get some monday. He had a pretty massive stockpile, but used it all the past couple months.

There is a lesson in that, always be replacing what you can of what you use in your stock pile, or the pile will be out of stock.

[hollohas]

If people saw how truly bad the supply situation is within the construction industry, they'd be shocked. It is across the board awful.

I've had plastic junction boxes on order since May/june for multiple large projects and have not received them. I used to have tens of thousands in stock at all times and could deliver large projects the next day.

I can't get smoke/co detectors w/ strobe, backordered for months.

Residential meter stacks have a 40 week lead time (used to be 3-4). I haven't seen a shipment of single meter sockets since May.

120/208v and 277/480 panelboards are 40 business days to ship. Used to be a week or from local stock.

600v fuses are nearly impossible to get.

2 pole 30/40/50A circuit breakers are non-existent for some reason.

All of these things are absolutely essential to building any sort of building.

I could go on and on. These are just a few examples that I had to deal with yesterday. Doesn't even take into account that all these things cost WAY more than a year ago.

[HoneyBadger]

I used to think Americans would revolt over stuff like this. I even claimed, probably on this very forum, that America wouldn't control the outbreak well specifically because we'd never agree to any sort of lockdown or mandates. Boy, was I wrong. I no longer think any significant group of Americans will revolt even if all that happens.

After all, the lefties would just loot Target stores and smash the windows at Starbucks while the righties would just condemn any of their own who stand up, chastising them "but we're better than that" and claim "we must work within the system".

We've already seen that bringing your displeasure directly to the people who created this mess is icky, "un-American" domestic terrorism.

Revolt will never happen. There's no fight in us. We'll keep on walking to our shitty totalitarian future like every other country that's been taken over by commies.

My calculus on this idea has changed a lot over the last 10 years.... There are certain things that I would proudly stand and defend at all costs, but that list of things is a lot shorter and with specific caveats, now that I've got kids and the potential of a very bright and comfortable future. More succinctly, you could say that my line in the sand has moved as I've gotten older. Once my kids are old enough to stand up for themselves and I have fewer liabilities, then I suppose that line would move again - likely back toward where it used to be.

The reality is that we might be very close to some extraordinarily difficult times, but when you take a look around.... most of us here are still more comfortable and better off than 95% of the human population. I think we've all but lost the idea of American Exceptionalism, so it'll take a lot of awful experiences to push most people across the line that demands action.


This goes back to the old axiom that I've always considered was about the fall of Rome.... but nowadays, we all look like Romans.

[hollohas]

You're absolutely right honeybadger. I'm in the same boat. I've given my children a VERY comfortable life...so far. But as you say, we're in the 'weak men create hard times' phase. And I'm concerned that although currently my 3 children are better off than most of the world, the country is working awfully hard to ruin their future. I truly believe that we're nearing the point that the strong men left are going to have to make some significant sacrifices in order to give our children the future they deserve.

It's nice to think we can wait until they are grown adults before we can move those lines again. But sacrificing is a young man's game. By the time our kids are adults, they may need to stand on that line and they may need us to back them up by caring for their kids.

The future is uncertain and I definitely don't want to shake the boat either. Right now I'm trying to shore up necessities and financials as much as possible. But I think it's pretty obvious, my optimism for the future of our country is waning fast.

[HoneyBadger]

You're absolutely right honeybadger. I'm in the same boat. I've given my children a VERY comfortable life...so far. But as you say, we're in the 'weak men create hard times' phase. And I'm concerned that although currently my 3 children are better off than most of the world, the country is working awfully hard to ruin their future. I truly believe that we're nearing the point that the strong men left are going to have to make some significant sacrifices in order to give our children the future they deserve.

It's nice to think we can wait until they are grown adults before we can move those lines again. But sacrificing is a young man's game. By the time our kids are adults, they may need to stand on that line and they may need us to back them up by caring for their kids.

The future is uncertain and I definitely don't want to shake the boat either. Right now I'm trying to shore up necessities and financials as much as possible. But I think it's pretty obvious, my optimism for the future of our country is waning fast.

TL;DR: Being rich is the best way to ensure a good future. Having a lot of dollars does not necessarily mean you are rich.

I think the best way to secure a good future, even in the dark times, is to be financially in the top 5%. Notice how things like gas prices and availability of toilet paper or construction parts doesn't really affect the top 5% of wealthy people? In total collapse or hyperinflation type of situation "finances" becomes ambiguous because things like food, water, and shelter, and other commodities hold the real value.... but I have a hard time seeing our nuclear capable, most powerful nation in the world falling to that sort of dystopian disarray (and even then, the wealthy always have the most capability to shift their wealth around to protect it - they aren't bothered about petty things like buying food and toilet paper). I would expect a mostly peaceful transition to a more autocratic government if things got that bad.

So if like me, you believe of total collapse of American government and society is quite unlikely, how does one best ensure they will retain their financial power through the changes? Work your butt off to ensure that whatever you are invested in gains value faster than anything else. Is PVC pipe suddenly more expensive to produce than it was a year ago? No, not really. What we are seeing is that the price has gone up on things like PVC, Beef, Chicken, Gas, new cars, etc..... because your dollars are worth less. Say it again: worthless.

What do you believe will be the best store of value for the next month? Year? 10 years? If you foolishly believe that it'll be the US dollar, then you're about to be very poor and frustrated.

Housing in most markets is a good store of value, but not all markets are equal. A single family home in a small farmtown in CA that we lived in has steadily gone up in price by about $40k/yr since 2014. A single family home in a nice part of Colorado Springs has gone up about $30k/yr since 2013. A single family home in a nice part of Montgomery AL has only increased about $5k/yr since 2017, which considering the cost of inflation is actually losing value against the USD. Invest wisely.

Is the stock market a good hedge against a weak dollar? Only if you are extremely lucky, or have a talent for picking the top 10 stocks and actively managing your accounts. Even though you may cry out "But HoneyBadger! The S&P 500 has grown 86% over the past year and a half!! That's a great number!!!" the reality is that those numbers are steeply inflated. Do you really believe that the US economy at this moment is nearly twice as strong as it was 18 months ago? Bahahahahaha that's ridiculous! I would contend that if your stock market investments aren't doubling each year, they're not doing much of anything. Pick a big company from the Dow Jones or S&P500. GE, Boeing, McDonalds, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Walmart, Apple, etc. Take a look for yourself at their stock returns. Do you really think Apple has grown 200% in the last 2 years? What new products have they released? Where is that 200% growth in value coming from? Do you see now why I think the average American needs to recalibrate their numbers that they equate with stock market success? Now look at a company that is ACTUALLY growing like crazy: Tesla. Do I believe that they have increased their value 10x over the last 2 years? No. But of all the companies I just listed, Tesla is the only one that is for certain innovating, growing, and increasing their value. They are increasing their production numbers on an almost exponential scale, opening huge new factories across the globe, hiring new workers like crazy. If your stocks aren't growing at a rate that is remotely close to Tesla stock (TSLA), then I would contend that your stocks are not a good store of value.

So then, what is a good store of value? Certain things will always be worth a lot to the right audience: certain properties, classic cars, unique collectables, etc. But are those practical for the average American? Not really. Diversifying your investments is always a good idea so your eggs aren't all in one basket. Diversification limits risk by limiting extreme performance. For this reason, I have chosen to retain some property as a portion of my strategy because people will always need a place to live. I've also maintained some very aggressive mutual funds that focus on technological innovation (ARK funds... which have not performed well over the past 9 months). I also have traditional retirement-style accounts with various tax advantages. The final piece in my strategy to increase my buying power is cryptocurrency. Some of you probably don't like cryptocurrency, likely because you don't understand it. Here's why I like cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin:

Anyone can buy, trade, and sell Bitcoin. Anyone. There is no cost of entry. You don't need to be able to front a down payment for a property or buy rare artwork or a classic car with cash. Anyone with a single US Dollar and access to the internet can open an account on a crypto exchange like Gemini or Coinbase and begin trading their dollar for crypto. If you want to be extra secure, then you can buy a hardware or software "wallet" for $80-300 and hold your own crypto keys securely.

Government regulation, taxes, FCC rules, etc are easy for wealthy politicians to skirt around. Hell just last week I saw an article that the president of the federal reserve bank of Dallas was conducting market trades before, during, and after changing Fed Reserve policy. Consequences? He stepped down from the board president position and the rest of the fed reserve board members were warned not to engage in insider trading. Seriously? If you or I did that, we'd be in jail! Fortunately, Crypto trading (if done wisely) is nearly impossible to track and gives preferential treatment to no one. No politician gets a different set of rules or laws for crypto trading. Crypto is infinitely fair.

What else do I like about Bitcoin? It's perfectly scarce, unlike the USD, which the fed can just print more of to fund the next ridiculous $3.5T infrastructure bill. Any fiat currency can inflate. Bitcoin cannot. There is a finite amount of Bitcoin that can ever be created or "mined". This also means that as more investors see the light and decide to invest in their own future with Bitcoin, the supply and demand curve will simply follow the math. (See Stock to Flow chart: https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/ )

Best thing about Bitcoin? It's 100% free to learn about and there are no secrets. Head over to https://www.ledger.com/academy and start getting smart.

I'm not advertising for either of the links above... they are just free resources.

Full disclosure: I am NOT a financial advisor. Don't construe this post as financial advice. Always understand what you choose to invest in and do your own research. I thought that having 10% of my net worth invested in Bitcoin and Ether seemed like a smart way to balance the perceived risks. That was a 2 years ago. Now my crypto holdings are about 60% of my net worth. I'm not saying this to brag or sound like a pompous ass; Just stating the fact that Bitcoin and Ether (even through the ups and downs of the economy, China banning all crypto, etc) have still outpaced all my other investments by a significant amount. They have been a good store of value for me and improved the future potential for myself and my family.

What is the best store of value for your money? How will you protect your wealth from the insidious tax of inflation? How will you build the best future for yourself and your loved ones?

[FoxtArt]

Crypto is highly volatile and a huge unanticipated risk is crypto theft, especially for people who are not tech savvy. I agree with a lot of your points but I don't necessarily advocate for early adoption for non-tech people, as the potential for massive loss is just as likely as significant gain. Don't invest things into crypto that you can't afford to lose. Wallets get stolen frequently and there is nothing that can be done after that point, it is irrevocably gone, forever.

[FoxtArt]

To give an example, I know of someone that tried to buy XRF. They asked their bank to wire $6,000 so they could buy some, the bank screwed up the wire transfer and wired $60,000 that purchased XRF. [ETA: while only withdrawing $6,000 from the customer. Big f-up by the bank]. They (customers) contacted the bank, notified the bank of the error, tried to figure out how to reverse the wire, tried to figure out how to fix the bank's error, bank ultimately called police and threatened them if it wasn't returned under 24 hours.

Stressed out, they found a reputable customer support number online for XRF, a kind gentlemen helped them solve their transfer problems.

EXCEPT, XRF doesn't have customer support, someone stole all of it and now the bank has been pressing felony charges against them as well as a civil case. I have been trying to assist where I can but it's a fun, fun clusterfuck.

Lots of major exchanges have also been hacked and had all wallets stolen. I'm not a big fan of trusting the exchanges, myself. But if you personally store it, there's the risk of you irrevocably losing it too.

[FoxtArt]

Last note on crypto:

Anything based on current encryption and work factor techniques has a shelf life. Bitcoin will not be forever. It's shelf life is under 10 years, very possibly under 5. If you want to beat the final market crash, make sure to keep on top of quantum computer news. In under a decade, there will by systems that can easily crack into any wallet and steal the contents. You want to watch the news and the second they become truly accessible to places like China, Russia, or North Korea, or in any way, commercially, you want to GTFO. It may even become available in under five years. Note that China especially already has robust quantum computing, it's just such a finite resource right now and of low enough qbits that it's utility wouldn't be wasted on something like bitcoin (even for a yuge wallet). That will be changing...

[HoneyBadger]

Again: Do your research and understand what you are investing in.

FWIW, major exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini are insured against theft, hacking, or fraudulent transfers. Cash sitting in your Gemini or Coinbase accounts is insured by the FDIC.

I have yet to see substantial recent evidence of wallet theft or hacking. There are MANY cases of user error, but not many cases of legitimate theft or hacking. Recent advancements in crypto protocols have made digital attacks even less effective.

For the record, I wouldn't advocate anyone invest in any crypto besides BTC or ETH. There are thousands of garbage cryptos out there now just trying to ride the hype train (like DOGE), but BTC will forever be the standard against which all others are measured.

ETA: Of course technological developments will change the landscape. This is why I stated: "What do you believe will be the best store of value for the next month? Year? 10 years?" Constant evaluation of what holds value is critical for maintaining your wealth.

[kidicarus13]

Crypto trading (if done wisely)

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