Agree with the sentiment on national parks etc.
I also think you make a valid point here - the current administration certainly could hold their ground and allow the shutdown to persist for a long time. They also could use it an an opportunity to trim lots of perceived fat.
From a federal employee standpoint, it's a knife edge: If everyone goes home during the shutdown but the train stays on the rails, it kind of confirms that those employees weren't really essential.
I do have good intel that DoD civilians are not currently being considered for a Reduction in Force (RIF) via the shutdown.