The Circle Approach to surviving

[AP-4Guy]

Very interesting forum. Thank you for starting what should be some very educational and thought-provoking discussions.

I know many people out there are new to the survival mindset and I am fairly new to this myself. I've been studying and practicing this for several years now, and I see some common approaches that evolve and develope.

I'll try not to drag this out so I'll get right to the point. I will start by pointing out two things that I know to be true: 1) People who plan no further than to have a gun, a well-stocked backpack and to live off the land are called "refugees". You will be joining 5 million or so other unprepared folks out there in the deer hunt. 2) In 2008, there were 700,000 deer and roughly 230,000 elk in Colorado. That's approximately 5 people for every big game animal in the state. Sure, we can eat other animals but you get my point. It's a losing proposition. "But, but, no one can hunt as good as me!", you say. May be true, but just because they can't hunt doesn't mean they won't be out there trying. Good luck with that.

I propose, to get started on the right foot, that you abandon this approach. If you're reading this now you are already smart enough to realize that life may not always stay as it is today, and you also have time to do something about it. Got a gun, and figure you can get whatever else you need with it? Don't be a fool. You have time, NOW, to do much better than that, so don't rely on that as a serious plan.

Here is a simple way to guide your planning. Start, as nearly all of us do, with a 3-4 supply of food, water, medical supplies, shelter and clothing in a backpack. This is the very first brick in the wall of preparedness. Yes, this is the first ring in your circle of defenses. You can, in a worst-case, SHTF sudden attack or disaster scenario, grab this bag and at least have something. But this is not the whole solution. Now imagine an emergency lasting a week: This is the second ring in your plan, and it will be slightly different from the first week's plan. Keep going from there. Each concentric ring represents a longer and longer timeframe, and so the complexity of the subsequent plans increase as you move outward.

Your particular circumstances will dictate your needs, of course, but this approach helps keep you focused. This will be very important as you progress because you will learn quickly that an undertaking like this can take on a life of it's own and consume you if you don't lay out a plan and stick to it.

So, start with a 3-day plan. Then 7 days, then 2 weeks, a month, two months etc. Include your family and also think about close friends - not necessarily providing for them but how you will handle them when it's crunch time. Will you take them in? What about your neighbors? Speaking of neighbors, how long do you feel you could stay in the city before things get completely out of hand? Where will you go after that?

More later but I just had to expand on an answer I gave to another post here.

[ronaldrwl]

I think you also need to think in terms of am I staying at home or do we need leave home.
I'm thinking in most cases your going to stay home with all your supplies. Trying to live in the mountains for more than a few weeks is not going to be easy.

Just me thinking

[Mtn.man]

try living here everyday,, it's not for everyone.
The romance of roughing in up here wears off very quickly.

I think you have to look at the situation where you are, come to an understanding of what there is and then develop a strategy to continue or leave.

There is no way people can/will compete for the wild game you mention in droves, as there are places NO ONE ever goes or has been, No matter what the scenerio peeps ain't got what it takes or can't go where the critters do.

[theGinsue]

I agree that the whole roughing it in the Mtn's thing would get old very fast, BUT..

In a long term situation, staying in the cities would becoming more dangerous. As the resources evaporated, people will become more and more desparate. Also consider that without water, heating and refrigeration, hygeine will degrade to unhealthy levels and people, in desperation, will consume food that will make them sick, and diseases WILL seemingly pop up out of nowhere and spread like wildfire.

If you physically remove yourself from the masses, you give yourself a bit of a barrier from some of those risks. You increase your chances for survival.

Just something to think about.

[Irving]

What do you guys think of just creating space where ever you are? If you shoot at people who come within 500 yards of where you are, how long will it take for people to just stay away? In that kind of situation, do you think people would be more likely to try and fight you or just go some where else?

[Troublco]

I agree that the whole roughing it in the Mtn's thing would get old very fast, BUT..

In a long term situation, staying in the cities would becoming more dangerous. As the resources evaporated, people will become more and more desparate. Also consider that without water, heating and refrigeration, hygeine will degrade to unhealthy levels and people, in desperation, will consume food that will make them sick, and diseases WILL seemingly pop up out of nowhere and spread like wildfire.

If you physically remove yourself from the masses, you give yourself a bit of a barrier from some of those risks. You increase your chances for survival.

Just something to think about.

I agree with this; no matter how well prepared you are once some of the less fortunates figure out that you have supplies, they and more of their ilk will come. And even if you have plenty of ammo, you have to sleep sometime. As we proved with the Sherman tank in WWII, quantity has a quality all its own. If enough unfortunates are trying for you, eventually they'll get you.

What do you guys think of just creating space where ever you are? If you shoot at people who come within 500 yards of where you are, how long will it take for people to just stay away? In that kind of situation, do you think people would be more likely to try and fight you or just go some where else?

Same as what I said above. If you shoot anyone that comes within 500 yards, you're advertising that you have something worth protecting and they'll come. And you have to sleep sometime. I'd rather use distance and stealth than trying to whack every nutjob that came trying for me.

[theGinsue]

What do you guys think of just creating space where ever you are? If you shoot at people who come within 500 yards of where you are, how long will it take for people to just stay away?

I'd rather use distance and stealth than trying to whack every nutjob that came trying for me.

Where I'm at right now is a tight fitting residential area (I have a whopping 6k sq ft lot). With so many homes for others to hide in/around, my ability to watch around me is limited. PLUS, bullets will go through my walls. If the bad guys (BG's) want to get to me all they have to do is randomly shoot into my home. Eventually they'll get me. Even if they didn't take that approach, as Troublco said ""You've got to sleep some time".

I still say that in longer term scenarios, my best choice is distance and dissappear.

[AP-4Guy]

I agree, although I didn't say it in my first post, that staying in the city is not a long-term solution. Quite the contrary!! I think the city would become untenable in fairly short order, probably 1-2 weeks max without food, even sooner without water. So, we're on the right track here.

What I was trying to get across is that in order to survive, even in the mountains or plains, you're going to need food and water. Lots of it. We each have the ability to start accumulating food and a way to get water NOW, not wait for TS to HTF and then you're all of a sudden on the street with your rifle and backpack. Come up with a plan!! And you'll need to be in a place that is defensible if it comes to that. Do I think it is smart to shoot at people just because they wander to within 500 yards of your stuff? No, not unless it's your property or you have unmistakeable markers out showing people where NOT to go. As was pointed out, this also attracts attention, and will surely invite harsh retaliation. I think a more sound plan is in order here.

I believe most people on the front range, when faced with a crises, will head to the mountains. You know how bad the mountains get on ski weekends, so just imagine if there is a crises brewing in Denver. Yes, initially those people will be confined to the roads and major highways, but it will not be long until the hills will literally be crawling with people. Just something to think about.

[Irving]

In a real situation where people are fending for themselves, the only way to determine whose property something is by force.

I like the rings of preparation idea by the way. Great method to keep focused. I've camped all of two times in my life and generally have no idea what I'm doing so I grossly over pack and bring all kinds of random shit that I never end up needing. Like I'll bring shoelaces or something, with no real purpose in mind, just "in case." Having a plan, to make your plan, helps keep things simple and prevents you from pushing around a shopping cart full of the contents of your junk drawer.

[AP-4Guy]

Stuart,

Not that I don't think this may be necessary under certain circumstances. But I am just wondering - will this be your property you are defending, or are you just planning on taking someone else's?? And what exactly is the threat these people are presenting to you?

This sounds like an extension of the "I have a gun, therefore I can get what I need" approach. I'm really not criticizing you, but as you progress I think you will understand how shortsighted and unrealistic this is. Again, this is exactly the situation we can easily avoid with a little forethought and preparation.

I can relate to the shoelaces syndrome! It's very easy to do. One thing I found helpful was the "List of Lists" on http://www.survivalblog.com