Your bug out plan - From City.

[thecatsfan]

I have to agree with some other posts, I'm staying put for as long as possible. I still believe a significant amount of people will head NSEW out of town and clog things up. Nobody is getting anywhere fast. Google some photos of the katrina stuff, gridlock.

Best option is to move out of town if you have any fair warning and are sure things are going to be worse, again: katrina.

There are some good articles on the Katrina thing, one guy documented all of the happenings, they were prepared, others showed up uninvited and things were just a mess.

I'd have to say I'd head east, if I thought I could get across town in the first place. Mountains pose so many obstacles of limited roads, mountain passes, fuel stops. Even going east from Denver isn't much better, only a few places to stop and get food and fuel.

It all depends on how much time I have to prepare, to choose which vehicle and if I can take the camper with me.

If I have to leave in 30 mins or less, I'm grabbing the 4 BOB's for the family and picking the wife's jeep for speed, fuel economy and off road ability.

If I have an hour, I'm grabbing the big truck and camper and anything I can fit in it.

so many What If's.

I think you said it well. "Stay as long as possible." But to assume you will never have to leave is putting all your eggs in one basket. I don't care where you live, there are viable and very real scenarios that could require you to bug out.

My approach sounds similar to yours except that I live on the edge of a suburban area where from my house, I can be on back roads inside of half a mile. And when I say backroads, I mean rural dirt roads with less than 5 houses per square mile density. I know back roads from my home to WY, NE, or KS, and also the mountains. We have bug out locations with permanent structures and friendlies to meet in both the plains and the hills. I can bug out and have a planned place to stay as far East as MN and as far west as NV. I have other locations much closer to home with close friends or family who are like minded.

I agree that bugging out is not the most attractive option, but there are many reasons why it could become the most survivable option. And what you get to take with you could be as much as a truck and camper, or as little as the BOB in the trunk of your car. No one will get to choose the SHTF scenario that comes. If you are 100% convinced that the dollar will collapse, that doesn't mean an airborne pandemic won't hit first. If you live in a mountain fortress and feel completely safe from SHTF, that doesn't mean there won't be forest fires long after all the fire protection services have ceased to exist.

Best and only option, IMHO, is to plan for the absolute worst and hope it never gets that bad.

[thecatsfan]

Just one of those things I can't really find the enthusiasm to get all worked up about.
Looking at the most likely ones.

Blizzard- Haven't seen one yet that within 72 hours everything was back to normal, or, near normal.
And I made it through the blizzard of '82.

Tornado- I'll go down in the crawlspace until it's over and proceed from there.

Flood- I'll put it this way, If I have to start worrying about the rising water, We should have had the Ark already.

Let's see, that leaves us with the "Red dawn scenario", Nuclear attack and Mob rules. The least likely ones.

Red Dawn- Pretty sure I'm going to be out numbered and out gunned on that one anyway, Might as well go down defending the
the house as opposed to some cave somewhere.

Mob rules- A few well placed shots "should" persuade them to look elsewhere. Or at least look for new leaders.

Nuclear attack- I love this one, I'm about 15 miles as the shockwave travels from the Fed center. which I'm guessing would still rate fairly high on the list of local targets.
So, if we are still talking 7 minutes from launch detection to impact, I might have enough time to tell my tushie good bye.

So, to sum up, I really just can't get that excited about it. Sorry..

Not get excited about it? I can see that. You can't wait for the sky to fall. And you should base your plans on your beliefs and your situations.

To me it sounds more like you have thought of scenarios where you should leave, but you are weighing the odds of those scenarios as being the least likely. Fair enough . I don't necessarily agree, but that is purely opinion.

Personally, I can foresee many scenarios where being in any form of an urban environment will become a no-win situation.

Tornado. Well, trust me, after you come out of the crawl space, you will be bugging out. Been there done that. Watched an F4 send the top half of my house into the next zip code. What if that F4 hits your house one month after the dollar collapses? Lieklihood is admittedly low but far from unimaginable.

Mob Rules. If that mob is big enough, you will not stop them. If they want what you have, they will take it or burn you out trying. A few well placed shots may only priovide them with a sense of urgency. Kevin Costner may have talked his way out of it. But a real life mob that has no visible source of food except for you and yours will not be as easily discouraged.

So, it's not so much that I disagree with your point of view as I disagree with your singular statement. "I have yet to come up with a scenario that would force me out of the house." The scenario exists. And I think you have thought of it. And if you have not, I still believe that SHTF can very easily create that scenario whether you have thought of it or not.

Personally, I will not risk the eggs in one basket approach, because if the least likely scenario is the one that occurs and all my preparations can't keep my kids alive if I have to leave my home, why bother preparing?

[Marlin]

The only one I can even think that might be close is IF, Yellowstone blows. But, I'll say, if it goes "worst case". That might even amount to an exercise in futility anyway.

Oh, as far as the mob goes, I don't think I have to worry about them too much. Much better 'hoods with much better loot than this one. Besides, I may be out looting those anyway.

[newracer]

If Yellowstone goes we won't have to worry about anything, we will be gone.

[Irving]

Also, about the lack of food sources in the mountains... I lived in a cabin up by Mt. Evans for 2 years... I know how to survive on my own in the Rockies.

I can't give anyone too hard a time about their plans either way though. After all, there are really only two plans in the first place. Bug out, or bug in; and likely, everyone is going to end up doing some variation of both in the long run.

[Irving]

Nuclear attack- I love this one, I'm about 15 miles as the shockwave travels from the Fed center. which I'm guessing would still rate fairly high on the list of local targets.
So, if we are still talking 7 minutes from launch detection to impact, I might have enough time to tell my tushie good bye.

I've tried to ask this before, and was provided a link, but it was too long for me to find what I was looking for. So you're saying that a direct, ground level, nuke strike at the Fed center would without a doubt end us (your place and mine?) About how far is "safe" from the initial shock wave of a nuke? How far from the fall out?

[gnihcraes]

Don't forget massive earthquake, we do live along a huge fault line. I believe in this more than some of the others possibilities.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Don't forget massive earthquake, we do live along a huge fault line. I believe in this more than some of the others possibilities.

+1
http://dola.colorado.gov/dem/public_...earthquake.htm

[Irving]

I'd love to own land that had either a cave or a hot spring. Think Cave of the Winds would be easily defend able?

[mcantar18c]

Also, about the lack of food sources in the mountains... I lived in a cabin up by Mt. Evans for 2 years... I know how to survive on my own in the Rockies.

Can you support a whole family?

My bug out plans were built around myself, my dog, and the possibility of having a female with me. I don't have kids so I'm not really considering that... I realize others do and that's fine, but I have no need to.