I would study the events following the fall of Soviet Union - how each town was forced to be independent with lack of fuel and energy. The law enforcement and police and many local governing structures broke down after a couple months of backpay and so on.
I think if anything - crashing economy is the most likely event within context.
Do some research into Ronald Reagan's 7% military budget which caused the panic in the SU and eventually was responded with huge increased in their part also. This caused the crash in their economy. Now think how the U.S. will be trying to keep up with the Chicom in a decade or so.![]()