Your bug out plan - From City.

[Asmodiar]

I was recently talking to a few of my buddies about what they would do in a shtf situation... Not zombie... Rather huge natural disaster type

Every one of them said "Grab my bag and head to the mountains"

But the thing is... it's easy to block the mountain roads... or stop up the Eisenhower tunnel... And of course that will happen...

And the biggest problem - the people who already live in the mountains are much better armed and stocked than anything you can carry... and they know the terrain.

...So how does your bug-out plan get around this large problem.

[StagLefty]

My thought is the last thing I'm doing is leaving my supplies and shelter UNLESS it's my last resort. If anyone thinks the folks in the mountains are going to welcome you with open arms they're crazy. Survival sucks it's not an internet game. JMHO

[Marlin]

I have yet to come up with a scenario that would force me out of the house.

[newracer]

If it is bad enough that I have to leave my house I have relatives in the mountains and I have a couple of vehicles that will get me there on less traveled roads.

[Irving]

I always laugh at people who say that.

1) They have no land.
2) You can't grow anything in the mountains.

What is the rule of thumb? For every 1,000' in altitude gain, you lose a full month of growing season? Something like that.

Go hang out above timber line and eat rocks pal.

[thecatsfan]

I have yet to come up with a scenario that would force me out of the house.

Don't worry. SHTF will think of one for you!

[Marlin]

Don't worry. SHTF will think of one for you!

Just one of those things I can't really find the enthusiasm to get all worked up about.
Looking at the most likely ones.

Blizzard- Haven't seen one yet that within 72 hours everything was back to normal, or, near normal.
And I made it through the blizzard of '82.

Tornado- I'll go down in the crawlspace until it's over and proceed from there.

Flood- I'll put it this way, If I have to start worrying about the rising water, We should have had the Ark already.

Let's see, that leaves us with the "Red dawn scenario", Nuclear attack and Mob rules. The least likely ones.

Red Dawn- Pretty sure I'm going to be out numbered and out gunned on that one anyway, Might as well go down defending the
the house as opposed to some cave somewhere.

Mob rules- A few well placed shots "should" persuade them to look elsewhere. Or at least look for new leaders.

Nuclear attack- I love this one, I'm about 15 miles as the shockwave travels from the Fed center. which I'm guessing would still rate fairly high on the list of local targets.
So, if we are still talking 7 minutes from launch detection to impact, I might have enough time to tell my tushie good bye.

So, to sum up, I really just can't get that excited about it. Sorry..

[thecatsfan]

Just one of those things I can't really find the enthusiasm to get all worked up about.
Looking at the most likely ones.

Blizzard- Haven't seen one yet that within 72 hours everything was back to normal, or, near normal.
And I made it through the blizzard of '82.

Tornado- I'll go down in the crawlspace until it's over and proceed from there.

Flood- I'll put it this way, If I have to start worrying about the rising water, We should have had the Ark already.

Let's see, that leaves us with the "Red dawn scenario", Nuclear attack and Mob rules. The least likely ones.

Red Dawn- Pretty sure I'm going to be out numbered and out gunned on that one anyway, Might as well go down defending the
the house as opposed to some cave somewhere.

Mob rules- A few well placed shots "should" persuade them to look elsewhere. Or at least look for new leaders.

Nuclear attack- I love this one, I'm about 15 miles as the shockwave travels from the Fed center. which I'm guessing would still rate fairly high on the list of local targets.
So, if we are still talking 7 minutes from launch detection to impact, I might have enough time to tell my tushie good bye.

So, to sum up, I really just can't get that excited about it. Sorry..

Not get excited about it? I can see that. You can't wait for the sky to fall. And you should base your plans on your beliefs and your situations.

To me it sounds more like you have thought of scenarios where you should leave, but you are weighing the odds of those scenarios as being the least likely. Fair enough . I don't necessarily agree, but that is purely opinion.

Personally, I can foresee many scenarios where being in any form of an urban environment will become a no-win situation.

Tornado. Well, trust me, after you come out of the crawl space, you will be bugging out. Been there done that. Watched an F4 send the top half of my house into the next zip code. What if that F4 hits your house one month after the dollar collapses? Lieklihood is admittedly low but far from unimaginable.

Mob Rules. If that mob is big enough, you will not stop them. If they want what you have, they will take it or burn you out trying. A few well placed shots may only priovide them with a sense of urgency. Kevin Costner may have talked his way out of it. But a real life mob that has no visible source of food except for you and yours will not be as easily discouraged.

So, it's not so much that I disagree with your point of view as I disagree with your singular statement. "I have yet to come up with a scenario that would force me out of the house." The scenario exists. And I think you have thought of it. And if you have not, I still believe that SHTF can very easily create that scenario whether you have thought of it or not.

Personally, I will not risk the eggs in one basket approach, because if the least likely scenario is the one that occurs and all my preparations can't keep my kids alive if I have to leave my home, why bother preparing?

[Irving]

Nuclear attack- I love this one, I'm about 15 miles as the shockwave travels from the Fed center. which I'm guessing would still rate fairly high on the list of local targets.
So, if we are still talking 7 minutes from launch detection to impact, I might have enough time to tell my tushie good bye.

I've tried to ask this before, and was provided a link, but it was too long for me to find what I was looking for. So you're saying that a direct, ground level, nuke strike at the Fed center would without a doubt end us (your place and mine?) About how far is "safe" from the initial shock wave of a nuke? How far from the fall out?

[Mak the Knife]

Why does everyone have to bug out in a SHTF situation? Wouldn't it be wise to learn from the civil unrest in the mid east and contemplate how best to secure your neighborhood? I think that figuring out who out of your bug out buddies has the most defensible and most easily maintained neighborhood might be a good option. Just food for thought that not everything happens overnight, and a few properly placed vehicles and a few properly placed shots should help to convince an unruly mob to mosey on by.

Then again I've got no military or third world experience.