
Originally Posted by
Rucker61
Let me see if I understand your proposal. The government decides to impose tariffs on a basket of goods (all goods? some goods?) currently manufactured overseas. I presume that there has to be a period of investigation to determine just what the tariff rates need to be to create the future balance, and some study of future market conditions to plan for consumer behavior in this new high-cost world. Then comes the announcement, that on D-Day tariffs will be imposed on all goods in the basket. Once the date is announced, this should drive Capital to start investing in infrastructure for this new manufacturing economy. Plants will have to be built, workers trained, sub-suppliers created and contracted, new fabs built (in compliance with local environmental laws), raw materials purchased and schedules, marketing efforts begun, etc. Just how long do you think it will take to achieve balance in the system, from the announcement to full production and shipment?
Once the factories are up and running, unless there is just one company with a monopoly, we'll have price competition, as the market will be in shock. With a unprecedented jump in demand for materials, construction and infrastructure, the major knob to turn for cost competitiveness will be labor, so no huge new middle class bump. Meanwhile, everyone who is importing is bringing in immense amounts of inventory at the pre-tariff rate prior to D-Day. Consumers are buying now, not then, as they know prices will be jumping after D-Day. Folks will decide to get buy on one flat screen per house, not four.
Let me know what your search on "tariffs effect on the economy" pulls up.